A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
